In this post we’ll take a look at the backtest results of opening one GLD short put 45 DTE cash-secured position each trading day from June 3 2008 through November 8 2019 and see if there are any discernible trends. We’ll also explore the profitable strategies to see if any outperform buy-and-hold GLD.
There are 10 backtests in this study evaluating over 28,700 GLD short put 45 DTE cash-secured trades.
Let’s dive in!
Systematically opening cash-secured short put positions on GLD was profitable regardless of strategy selected.
None of the cash-secured GLD short put strategies outperformed buy-and-hold GLD with regard to total return.
- Symbol: GLD
- Strategy: Short Put
- Days Till Expiration: 45 DTE +/- 17, closest to 45
- Start Date: 2008-06-03
- End Date: 2019-11-08
- Positions opened per trade: 1
- Entry Days: daily
- Entry Signal: N/A
- Timing: 3:46pm ET
- Strike Selection
- 5 delta +/- 4.5 delta, closest to 5
- 10 delta +/- 5 delta, closest to 10
- 16 delta +/- 6 delta, closest to 16
- 30 delta +/- 8 delta, closest to 30
- 50 delta +/- 8 delta, closest to 50
- Trade Entry
- 5D short put
- 10D short put
- 16D short put
- 30D short put
- 50D short put
- Trade Exit
- 50% max profit or 21 DTE, whichever occurs first
- Hold till expiration
- Max Margin Utilization Target (short option strats only): 20% | 1x leverage
- Max Drawdown Target: 99% | account value shall not go negative
- Margin requirements are always satisfied
- Margin calls never occur
- Margin requirement for short CALL and PUT positions is 20% of notional
- Margin requirement for short STRADDLE and STRANGLE positions is 20% of the larger strike
- Margin requirement for short VERTICAL SPREAD positions is the difference between the strikes
- Early assignment never occurs
- Prices are in USD
- Prices are nominal (not adjusted for inflation)
- Margin collateral is held as cash and earns no interest
- Assignment P/L is calculated by closing the ITM position at 3:46pm ET the day of expiration / position exit
- Commission to open, close early, or expire ITM is 1.00 USD per contract
- Commission to expire worthless is 0.00 USD per contract
- Commission to open or close non-option positions, if applicable, is 0.00 USD
- Slippage is calculated according to the slippage table
- For comprehensive details, visit the methodology page
Managing trades early lowered the win rate for all strategies except 50D.
Baring the 5D early management strategy which suffered from disproportionally-greater commission drag, the higher the delta the lower the win rate.
Worst Monthly Return
Average P/L Per Day
Average Trade Duration
Managing trades at 50% max profit or 21 DTE yielded trade durations less than half the duration of hold-till-expiration.
Compound Annual Growth Rate
Profit Spent on Commission
21.9% – the blended average percent of profits spent on commission across strategies.
Higher delta strategies yielded greater total return than lower delta strategies.
Holding till expiration yielded greater total return than managing early.
All option strategies were profitable.
Early management hurt performance across the board. Yes, daily P/L is higher as a result of the much shorter trade durations. However, that’s more than offset by every other metric. This is a scenario where the best approach historically has been to simply open a position then walk away.
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