May 26, 2023

Short VIX Call 30 DTE s1 signal Options Backtest

spintwig.com Options 30 DTE, backtest, Hold Till Expiration, Leveraged, s1 signal, Short Call, VIX/VX 0

6 min read

Selling calls on VIX is a roundabout way to gain exposure to short /VX futures without having a futures account and without having to fiddle with SPAN margin requirements. If a trader has portfolio margin (PM) on their securities trading account, trading VIX options can offer administrative advantages in the form of margin-management and cash-management simplicity as well as potential margin relief through PM cross margining. Traders with a standard regulation-T (Reg-T) trading account won’t have the potential for cross margining as that’s a feature exclusive to PM accounts, but they can still benefit from the margin-management and cash-management administrative simplifications.

VIX options aren’t a 1:1 replacement for short /VX, but they can achieve reasonably-close performance characteristics. The farther in the money (ITM) the position at order entry, the more it’ll be have like the underlying (VIX options reference /VX as the underlying, not the VIX index) and the less it’ll be influenced by the greeks associated with option instruments. Traders can also make less /VX-like and more option-like trades by targeting lower deltas, expressing sentiment regarding volatility of /VX.

We’ll take a look at the backtest results of opening one short VIX call 30 DTE position each trading day from Jan 3 2007 through Apr 30 2023 and see if there are any discernible trends. Delta targets include 5, 10, 16, 30, 50 (at the money), and 90 (far ITM, short /VX proxy). We will also explore the performance of the s1 signal. The s1 signal is a boolean (TRUE / FALSE) daily indicator that attempts to identify the days in which short put and short vertical put positions on the S&P 500 are most likely to be profitable at expiration. s1 is based on data from Cboe and S&P Global.

The s1 signal has yielded material improvements in total return, risk-adjusted return, max drawdown, and capital efficiency when selling puts on the S&P 500 vs a “market-agnostic” daily-entry strategy. That is, it avoids opening positions on days in which the realized [downward] movement (RV) is anticipated to be greater at expiration than the expected [downward] movement (IV). When the S&P 500 experiences downward movements in excess of the market’s expectations, front-month /VX tends to experience material upward movements. If the s1 signal can help traders avoid these expectation-exceeding down days on S&P 500, could the same mechanic be applied to help traders avoid expectation-exceeding up days on /VX?

This study seeks to explore the following theses:

if we open and hold-till-expiration a short VIX 30 DTE call position on the days in which s1 is TRUE, and take no action on the days in which s1 is FALSE, we will outperform, with regard to capital efficiency, a strategy that opens and holds-till-expiration every trading day
if we open and hold-till-expiration a short VIX 30 DTE call position on the days in which s1 is FALSE, and take no action on the days in which s1 is TRUE, we will underperform, with regard to capital efficiency, a strategy that opens and holds-till-expiration every trading day
applying the s1 = TRUE signal to a leveraged short VIX call 30 DTE strat can outperform a 100% SPY buy-and-hold portfolio with dividends reinvested (total return) with regard to total return, risk-adjusted return, and max drawdown

To test these theses we will:

limit order entry to only the days in which s1 = TRUE to see if the strategy outperforms daily entry with regard to capital efficiency
limit order entry to only the days in which s1 = FALSE to see if the strategy underperforms daily entry with regard to capital efficiency
compare performance of s1 = TRUE strats against a 100% SPY buy-and-hold portfolio with dividends reinvested (total return) to see if the option strats outperform a buy-and-hold portfolio

Performance of the s1 signal is explored in different contexts in other non-paywalled s1 signal studies.

There are 18 backtests in this study evaluating over 46,900 short VIX call 30 DTE leveraged trades.

Let’s dive in!

Summary

Thesis 1: the s1 signal, when true, yielded up to a 5180% (52.8x) improvement in capital efficiency vs a “market-agnostic” daily-entry strategy. It also improved premium capture by up to 2270% (23.7x) vs daily entry.

Thesis 2: the s1 signal, when false, yielded up to a -2859% (-27.6x) deterioration in capital efficiency (experienced negative PnL) vs a “market-agnostic” daily-entry strategy. It also impaired premium capture by up to -2346% (-22.5x) (experienced negative premium capture) vs daily entry.

Thesis 3: the s1 signal, when true and leveraged (30-delta, max leverage of 5x), yielded 40% greater total return vs buy-and-hold SPY with dividends reinvested (total return). The same option strategy accomplished this with a 32% greater sharpe ratio and with a 22% shallower max drawdown. Complimenting the shallower max drawdown vs buy-and-hold, max drawdown duration was 87% shorter.

The daily s1 signal email alert is available as a 7-day free trial. Start making data-driven trades today.

Methodology

Strategy Details

Symbol: VIX
Strategy: Short Call
Days Till Expiration: 30 DTE +/- 14, closest to 30
Start Date: 2007-01-03
End Date: 2023-04-30
Positions opened per trade: 1
Entry Days:
- each trading day
- each trading day in which the s1 signal = TRUE
- each trading day in which the s1 signal = FALSE
Entry Signal: s1 signal
Timing 3:46pm ET
Strike Selection
- 5 delta +/- 4.5, closest to 5
- 10 delta +/- 5, closest to 10
- 16 delta +/- 6, closest to 16
- 30 delta +/- 8, closest to 30
- 50 delta +/- 8, closest to 50
- 90 delta +/-8, closest to 90
Trade Entry
- 5-delta short call
- 10-delta short call
- 16-delta short call
- 30-delta short call
- 50-delta short call
- 90-delta short call
Trade Exit
- Hold till expiration
Max Margin Utilization Target (short option strats only): 100% | 5x leverage
Max Drawdown Target: 99% | account value shall not go negative

Assumptions

Margin requirement for short CALL and PUT positions is 20% of notional
Margin requirement for short STRADDLE and STRANGLE positions is 20% of the larger strike
Margin requirement for short VERTICAL SPREAD positions is the difference between the strikes
Margin requirement for short CALENDAR SPREAD positions is 20% of the short option (short option expires after the long option)
Margin requirement for long CALENDAR SPREAD positions is the net cost of the spread (short option expires before the long option)
Early assignment never occurs
There is ample liquidity at all times
Margin calls never occur (starting capital is set using hindsight bias so that max margin utilization never exceeds 100%)
Apply a 20% discount to displayed results. For example, if a strat depicts a CAGR of 10%, assume that it’ll yield 8% in practice.

Mechanics

Prices are in USD
Prices are nominal (not adjusted for inflation)
All statistics are pre-tax, where applicable
Margin collateral is invested in 3mo US treasuries and earns interest daily
Assignment PnL is calculated by closing the ITM position at 3:46pm ET the day of position exit if managed early or 4:00pm if held till expiration
Commission to open, close early, or expire ITM is 1.00 USD per non-index underlying (eg: SPY, AAPL, etc.) contract
Commission to open, close early, or expire ITM is 1.32 USD per index underlying (eg: SPX, RUT) contract
Commission to expire worthless is 0.00 USD per contract (non-index and index)
Commission to open or close non-option positions, if applicable, is 0.00 USD
Slippage is calculated according to the slippage table
Starting capital for short option backtests is adjusted in $1000 increments such that max margin utilization is between 80-100%, closest to 100%, of max margin utilization target
Starting capital for long option backtests is adjusted in $1000 increments such that max drawdown is between 80-100%, closest to 100%, of max drawdown target
Positions that have an exit date beyond the backtest end date are excluded
For comprehensive details, visit the methodology page

Results

Starting Capital

Margin Utilization

Short VIX Call 30 DTE max margin utilization table

Hindsight bias was used to maximize Reg-T margin utilization for each strategy. This allows a “best case” scenario for the option strategy to outperform the benchmark by identifying the minimum amount of starting capital necessary to successfully (eg: avoid margin calls) complete the backtest.

Premium Capture

Win Rate

Monthly Returns

Short VIX Call 30-DTE average monthly pnl

Short VIX Call 30 DTE average monthly pnl table

Short VIX Call 30 DTE monthly returns table

Max Drawdown

Max Drawdown Duration

Average Trade Duration

Average Trade Delta

Compound Annual Growth Rate

Annual Volatility

Sharpe Ratio

Profit Spent on Commission

Capital Efficiency

Total PnL

Overall

Discussion

Short volatility strats have a tendency to generate small and consistent profits with occasional outsized losses that can wipe out months or years of profits in a single trade. Rather than trying to completely avoid these losing trades (the s1 signal does a great job of avoiding several of them), which is an impossible task, a better approach would be to make the trade less asymmetric.

VIX options are notably asymmetric relative to SPX options. When a short VIX call expires ITM, it’s usually far ITM. Selling far out-of-the-money (OTM) calls on VIX only exacerbates the issue due to effects of vega. We can see this when looking at the average win and average loss across delta targets.

The ratio of average loss to average win can be used as a proxy for [a]symmetry. The 5-delta strats experience ratios in the 25-53x range. That is, a loss is 25-53x greater in magnitude than a win. As we work our way closer to the money and in the money, the ratio decreases all the way down to the 0.2-2x range. That is, a loss is only 20%-2x greater than a win.

Let’s take a closer look at the 90-delta short /VX proxy trade. We’ll look at buy-and-hold SPY with dividends reinvested (total return), opening a 90-delta short call daily, opening a 90-delta short call only on days when s1 = TRUE, and opening a 90-delta short call only on days when s1 = FALSE.

Starting Capital and Leverage

Trading exclusively when the s1 signal = TRUE required a fraction of starting capital vs daily entry to successfully execute the strategy at a max-leverage target of 5x, without margin calls, for the duration of the backtest.

Of note is the ratio of max margin use to average daily margin use. The smaller the ratio, the less volatile the strategy. The greater the ratio, the more volatile the strategy. 97.84/4.33 equates to a 22.6x expansion in margin use over the duration of the backtest. Despite this sounding rather extreme, the expansion was limited to the 2008-2009 years.

Win Rate Stats

The s1 signal = TRUE strat had roughly half ( 1975 / 3886 ) of the number of occurrences vs daily entry and experienced a greater average win and smaller average loss.

Profit and Loss Stats

The s1 signal = TRUE strat yielded 92% of the income vs daily entry while placing 49% fewer trades. More concisely, s1 signal = TRUE improved premium capture by 71% ( 32.25 / 18.88 -1 ).

Performance Stats

The s1 signal = TRUE strat yielded ~80% greater average PnL per trade and average PnL per day per position vs daily entry.

Risk Management

The s1 signal = TRUE strat yielded a 22% shallower max drawdown and 85% shorter max drawdown duration vs daily entry.

Distribution of s1 signals

The s1 = TRUE signal, while suggesting order entry on roughly half the trading days since 2007, is not evenly distributed throughout time. Here’s a breakdown of participation rate by year: