Short VIX Call 90-DTE s1 signal Options Backtest

5 min read

Selling calls on VIX is a roundabout way to gain exposure to short /VX futures without having a futures account and without having to fiddle with SPAN margin requirements. If a trader has portfolio margin (PM) on their securities trading account, trading VIX options can offer administrative advantages in the form of margin-management and cash-management simplicity as well as potential margin relief through PM cross margining. Traders with a standard regulation-T (Reg-T) trading account won’t have the potential for cross margining as that’s a feature exclusive to PM accounts, but they can still benefit from the margin-management and cash-management administrative simplifications.

Short VIX call options aren’t a 1:1 replacement for short /VX, but they can achieve reasonably-close performance characteristics. The farther in the money (ITM) the short leg at order entry, the more it’ll be have like the underlying (VIX options reference /VX as the underlying, not the VIX index) and the less it’ll be influenced by the greeks associated with option instruments. Traders can also make less /VX-like and more option-like trades by targeting lower deltas on the short leg, expressing sentiment regarding volatility of /VX (ticker: VVIX).

We’ll take a look at the backtest results of opening one short VIX call 90-DTE position each trading day from Jan 3 2007 through Jul 19 2023 (90-DTE VIX contracts have mid-month expiration cycles) and see if there are any discernible trends. Delta targets include 5, 10, 16, 30, 50 (at the money), and 90 (far ITM, short /VX proxy).

We will also explore the performance of the s1 signal. The s1 signal is a boolean (TRUE / FALSE) daily indicator that attempts to identify the days in which short put and short put positions on the S&P 500, and far-ITM short call and short vertical call positions on VIX, are most likely to be profitable at expiration. s1 is based on data from Cboe and S&P Global.

The s1 signal has yielded material improvements in total return, risk-adjusted return, max drawdown, and capital efficiency when selling puts on the S&P 500 vs a “market-agnostic” daily-entry strategy. That is, it avoided opening positions on days in which the realized [downward] volatility (RV) is anticipated to be greater at expiration than the implied [expected] [downward] volatility (IV).

When the S&P 500 experiences downward movements in excess of the market’s expectations, near-month /VX tends to experience material upward movements. If the s1 signal can help traders avoid these expectation-exceeding down days on S&P 500, could the same mechanic be applied to help traders avoid expectation-exceeding up days on /VX?

This study seeks to explore the following theses:

1. if we open and hold-till-expiration a short VIX call 90-DTE position on the days in which s1 is TRUE, and take no action on the days in which s1 is FALSE, we will outperform, with regard to total return, risk-adjusted return, max drawdown, and max drawdown duration (and consequently capital efficiency), a strategy that opens and holds-till-expiration every trading day
2. if we open and hold-till-expiration a short VIX call 90-DTE position on the days in which s1 is FALSE, and take no action on the days in which s1 is TRUE, we will underperform, with regard to total return, risk-adjusted return, max drawdown, and max drawdown duration (and consequently capital efficiency), a strategy that opens and holds-till-expiration every trading day
3. if we open and hold till expiration a short VIX call 90-DTE position on the days in which s1 is TRUE, with a max margin utilization target of 100%, we will outperform, with regard to total return, risk-adjusted return, max drawdown, and max drawdown duration, a 100% SPY buy-and-hold portfolio with dividends reinvested (total return)

To test these theses we will:

1. limit order entry to only the days in which s1 = TRUE to see if the strategy outperforms daily entry with regard to total return, risk-adjusted return, max drawdown, and max drawdown duration (and consequently capital efficiency)
2. limit order entry to only the days in which s1 = FALSE to see if the strategy underperforms daily entry with regard to total return, risk-adjusted return, max drawdown, and max drawdown duration (and consequently capital efficiency)
3. limit order entry to only the days in which s1 = TRUE, with a max margin utilization target of 100%, to see if the strategy outperforms a 100% SPY buy-and-hold portfolio with dividends reinvested (total return) with regard to total return, risk-adjusted return, max drawdown, and max drawdown duration

Performance of the s1 signal is explored in different contexts in other s1 signal studies.

There are 18 backtests in this study evaluating over 48,900 short VIX call 90-DTE trades.

The data used in this study was provided by ORATS via a professional license paid for by spintwig LLC.

Build the same ORATS trade logs used in this study with an individual license, discounted up to 66% for spintwig clients and readers (affiliate link) or download the finished product from our trade log store.

Let’s dive in!

Summary

Thesis 1

Thesis 2

Thesis 3

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Methodology

Strategy Details

• Symbol: VIX
• Strategy: Short Call
• Days Till Expiration: 90-DTE +/- 30, closest to 90
• Start Date: 2007-01-03
• End Date: 2023-07-19
• Positions opened per trade: 1
• Entry Days:
  • each trading day
  • each trading day in which the s1 signal = TRUE
  • each trading day in which the s1 signal = FALSE
• Entry Signal: s1 signal
• Timing 3:46pm ET
• Strike Selection
  • 5 delta +/- 4.5, closest to 5
  • 10 delta +/- 5, closest to 10
  • 16 delta +/- 6, closest to 16
  • 30 delta +/- 8, closest to 30
  • 50 delta +/- 8, closest to 50
  • 90 delta +/-8, closest to 90
• Trade Entry
  • 5-delta short call
  • 10-delta short call
  • 16-delta short call
  • 30-delta short call
  • 50-delta short call
  • 90-delta short call
• Trade Exit
  • Hold till expiration
• Max Margin Utilization Target (short option strats only): 100% | 5x leverage
• Max Drawdown Target: 99% | account value shall not go negative

Assumptions

• Margin requirement for short CALL and PUT positions is 20% of notional
• Margin requirement for short STRADDLE and STRANGLE positions is 20% of the larger strike
• Margin requirement for short VERTICAL SPREAD positions is the difference between the strikes
• Margin requirement for short CALENDAR SPREAD positions, where the short option expires after the long option, is 20% of the short option
• Margin requirement for long CALENDAR SPREAD positions, where the short option expires before the long option, is the net cost of the spread
• Margin requirement for short IRON CONDOR positions is the difference between the call-side strikes if both sides are the same width, otherwise margin requirement is the width of the wider side
• Early assignment never occurs
• There is ample liquidity at all times
• Margin calls never occur (starting capital is set using hindsight bias so that max margin utilization never exceeds 100%)
• Apply a 20% discount to displayed results. For example, if a strat depicts a CAGR of 10%, assume that it’ll yield 8% in practice.

Mechanics

• Prices are in USD
• Prices are nominal (not adjusted for inflation)
• All statistics are pre-tax, where applicable
• Margin collateral is invested in 3mo US treasuries and earns interest daily
• Option positions are opened at 3:46pm ET
• Option positions are closed at 3:46pm ET (4:00pm if closed on the date of expiration)
• Commission to open, close early, or expire ITM is 1.00 USD per non-index underlying (eg: SPY, IWM, AAPL, etc.) contract
• Commission to open, close early, or expire ITM is 1.32 USD per index underlying (eg: SPX, RUT, etc.) contract
• Commission to expire worthless is 0.00 USD per contract (non-index and index)
• Commission to open or close non-option positions, if applicable, is 0.00 USD
• Slippage is calculated according to the slippage table
• Starting capital for short option backtests is adjusted in $1000 increments such that max margin utilization is between 80-100%, closest to 100%, of max margin utilization target
• Starting capital for long option backtests is adjusted in $1000 increments such that max drawdown is between 80-100%, closest to 100%, of max drawdown target
• Positions that have an exit date beyond the backtest end date are excluded
• For comprehensive details, visit the methodology page

Results

Overall

Starting Capital

Margin Utilization

Hindsight bias was used to maximize Reg-T margin utilization for each strategy. This allows a “best case” scenario for the option strategy to outperform the benchmark by identifying the minimum amount of starting capital necessary to successfully (eg: avoid margin calls) complete the backtest.

Capital Efficiency

Win Rate

Premium Capture

Monthly Returns

Max Drawdown

Max Drawdown Duration

Average Trade Duration

Average Trade Delta

Compound Annual Growth Rate

Annual Volatility

Sharpe Ratio

Profit Spent on Commission

Total PnL

Discussion

Short volatility strats have a tendency to generate small and consistent profits with occasional outsized losses that can wipe out months or years of profits in a single trade. Rather than trying to completely avoid these losing trades (the s1 signal has done a great job of avoiding several of them), which is an impossible task, a better approach would be to make the trade less asymmetric.

VIX options are notably asymmetric relative to SPX options. When a short VIX call expires ITM, it’s usually far ITM. Selling far out-of-the-money (OTM) calls on VIX only exacerbates the issue due to effects of vega. We can see this when looking at the average win and average loss across delta targets.

The ratio of average loss to average win can be used as a proxy for [a]symmetry. The 5-delta strats experience ratios in the 100x range. That is, a loss is ~10000% greater in magnitude than a win. As we work our way closer to the money and in the money, the ratio decreases all the way down to the 0.55x range. That is, a loss is only ~55% greater than a win.

Let’s take a closer look at the short VIX call 90-DTE 90-delta trade. We’ll look at opening a position daily, opening a position only on days when s1 = TRUE, opening a position only on days when s1 = FALSE, then benchmark everything against buy-and-hold SPY with dividends reinvested (total return).

Starting Capital and Leverage

Win Rate Stats

Profit and Loss Stats

Performance Stats

Risk Management

Distribution of s1 signals

The s1 = TRUE signal, while suggesting order entry on roughly half the trading days since 2007, is not evenly distributed throughout time. Here’s a breakdown of participation rate by year:

Up-to-date s1 signal historical boolean values and s1 signal historical raw + boolean values are available for download in the trade log store.

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